Будущее капитализма

17 . Charles F. Doran and Ellen Reisman Babby, eds., Being and Becoming Canada, The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, March 1995.

18 . Tony Judt, «1988: The End of Which European Era?» After Communism, What? special issue of Daedalus, Summer 1994, p. 24.

19 . Martin Kramer, «Arab Nationalism: Mistaken Identity,» Reconstructing Nations and States, special issue of Daedalus, Summer 1993, p. 171.

20 . Francis Fukuyama, «Blood and Belonging,» New York Times Book Review, April 10, 1994, p. 7.

21 . Marlise Simons, «Corsican Separatists Separate,» International Herald Tribune, June 3, 1995, p. 2.

22 . Douglas B. Klusmeyer, «Aliens, Immigrants, and Citizens,» Reconstructing Nations and States, special issue of Daedalus, Summer 1993, p. 102.

23 . Eric Hobsbawm, Age of Extremes: The Short Twentieth Century, 1914-1991 (London: Michael Joseph, 1994), p. 11.

24 . Ralph C. Bryant, 'Increasing Economic Integration and Eroding Political Sovereignty," The Brookings Review, Fall 1994, p. 42.

1. Arthur R. Jensen, Straight Talk About Mental Tests (New York' Free Press 1981) P. 6.

2. Richard Sandomir, «Pro Basketball: Players Sue to Raise NBA Salary Cap,» New York Times, November 10, 1994, p. B4.

3. Council of Economic Advisers, Economic Report of the President 1995 [Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office), pp. 280, 358.

4. Martin Baily, Gary Burtless, Robert E. Litan, Growth with Equity (Washington, D. C.: Brookmgs Institution, 1993).

5. Jennifer L. Hochschild, What's Fair? American Beliefs About Distributive Justice (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1981), p. 9.

6. Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man (New York: Avon Books, 1992), pp. 242, 291.

7. Encyclopedia Britannica, Vol. 20, 1972 edition, p. 631.

8. J. L. Baxter, Behavioral Foundations of Economics (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1993), pp. 28, 35.

9. Ibid., p. 53.; Tibor Scitovsky, The Joyless Economy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1978), p. 109.

10. Jonathan H. Turner, Herbert Spencer: A Renewed Appreciation (Beverly HUIs, Calif.: Sage Publishers, 1985), p. 11; J. D. Y. Peel, Herbert Spencer, The Evolution of a Sociologist (New York: Basic Books, 1971); Herbert Spencer, The Principles of Biology, Vol. 1 (New York: Appleton amp; Co., 1866), p. 530.

11. Richard J. Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life (New York: Free Press, 1994).

12. Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Annual Digest of Statistics, 1994 Edition (Hong Kong: Government Printer), p. 198.

13. Ng Kang-Chung, «Resale Reform to Free Flats for Needy,» South China Morning Post, Sept. 16, 1995, p. 1.

14. John A. Garraty, Unemployment in History (New York: Harper and Row 1978) p. 134.

15. Peter Applebome, «In Gingrich's College Course, Critics Find a Wealth of Ethical Concerns,» New York Times, February 20, 1995, p. C7.

16. Eric Hobsbawm, Age of Extremes: The Short Twentieth Century, 1914-1991 (London: Michael Joseph, 1994), p. 138.

17. Newt Gingrich, Contract with America (New York: Times Books 1994) 18.Ibid.

19. Nordal Akerman, ed., The Necessity of Friction (Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag 1993) p. 12.

20. Alan Cowell, «Socialists Are Sinking in Germany,» New York Times, September 24 1995, p. 4.

21. Michael Thompson-Noel, «A Daily Dose of Pick and Mix News,» Financial Times March 13, 1995, p. 10.

22. Richard Tomkins, «Enter the Bespoken Newspaper,» Financial Times, March 13 1995, p. 11.

23. Fernand Braudel, The Identity of France, Vol. II, People and Production (New York: Fontana Press, 1991), p. 102.

24. Frances Gies and Joseph Gies, Forge and Waterwheel: Technology and Innovation in the Middle Ages (New York: HarperCoIlins), 1994, pp. 1, 3.

25. Braudel, The Identity of France, p. 102.

26. Georges Duby, ed., A History of Private Life: Revelations of the Medieval World (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press/Belknap Press, 1988), p. 123.

27. Gies and Gies, Forge and Waterwheel, pp. 37, 43.

28. Fernand Braudel, The Structures of Everyday Life: The Limits of the Possible, Vol. 1 (New York: Harper and Row, 1981), p. 123.

29. William Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire: The Medieval Mind and the Renaissance (Boston: Little, Brown, 1992), p. 47.

30. Ibid., p. 5.

31. Ibid., p. 69.

32. Braudel, The Identity of France, p. 102.

33. Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire, p. 96.

34. Ibid., p. 51.

35. Ibid.; Georges Duby, Dominique B. Arthelemy, and Charles De LaRonciere, «Portraits,» in Georges Duby, ed., A History of Private Life: Revelations of the Medieval World (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press/Belknap Press, 1988), p. 170.

36. Fernand Braudel, The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of PhilUp 11 (New York: Harper and Row, 1973), p. 745.

37. Duby, ed., A History of Private Life, p. 23.

38. Ibid., p. 397.

39. Duby, Arthelemy, and De LaRonciere, «Portraits,» pp. 116, 165; Norman F. Cantor, The Civilization of the Middle Ages (New York: HarperCoIlins, 1993), p. 197.

40. Timothy Egan, «Many Seek Security in Private Communities,» New York Times, Septembers, 1995, p. 1.

41. Ibid., p. 22.

42. Adam Pertman, 'Home Safe Home: Closed Communities Grow," Boston Globe, March 14, 1994, p. 1.

43. Dale Mahadridge, «Walled Off,» Mother Jones, November/December 1994, p. 27.

44. Ibid.

45. Egan, «Many Seek Security,» p. 22.

46. Edward J. Blakely and Marach Gail Snyder, Fortress America: Gated and Walled Communities in the United States, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, June 10, 1994, p. 11.

47. Ibid., p. 9.

48. Cantor, The Civilization of the Middle Ages, p. 195.

49. Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire, p. 47.

50. Cantor, The Civilization of the Middle Ages, p. 119.

51. Fernand Braudel, A History of Civilization (New York: Penguin Press, 1963), p. 17.

52. Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire, p. 5.

53. Duby, ed., A History of Private Life, p. 69.

54. Cantor, The Civilization of the Middle Ages, p. 187; Gies and Gies, Forge and Waterwheel, p. 178.

55. Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire, pp. 6, 7.

56. Ibid., p. 11.

57. Ibid., p. 37.

58. Malcolm Barber, The Two Cities: Medieval Europe 1050-1320 (New York: Rout-ledge, 1992), p. 27.

59. Cantor, The Civilization of the Middle Ages, p. 27.

60. Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire, p. 73.

61. Susan Strange, «The Defective State,» Daedalus, Spring 1995, p. 56.

62. Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire, p. 3.

63. Ibid., pp. 86,90, 102, 121.

64. Jerry Gray, «Budget Axes Land on Items Big and Small,» New York Times, February 24, 1995, p. A14.

65. Gunnar Myrdal, Against the Stream (New York: Pantheon, 1972).

66. Robert Heilbroner and William Milberg, The Crisis of Vision in Modem Economic Thought (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1995), p. 108.

67. Richard Holt, The Reluctant Superpower (New York: Kodansha International, 1995), p. 1.

68. R. С. Lewontin, Steven Rose and Leon J. Kamin, Not in Our Genes: Biology, Ideology, and Human Nature (New York: Pantheon Books, 1984), p. 69.

69. Gary S. Becker and William M. Landes, Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment (New York: Columbia University Press/ National Bureau of Economic Research, 1974), p. 18.

70. Lewontin, Rose, and Kamin, Not in Our Genes, p. 5.

71. Amitai Etzioni, The Spirit of Community: Rights, Responsibility, and the Communi tarian Agenda (New York: Crown Publishers, 1993), p. 30.

72. Daniel Bell and Irving Kristol, eds., The Crisis in Economic Theory (New York: Basic Books, 1981); Samuel Brittan, The Role and Limits of Government (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1983), p. 26.

73. Myrdal, Against the Stream.

74. Fred Block, Post-Industrial Possibilities: A Critique of Economic Discourse (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990), p. 39.

75. James M. Buchanan and Robert D. Tollison, Theory of PubKc Choice: Political Applications of Economics (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1972).

76. Mark A. Lutz and Kenneth Lux, Humanistic Economics (New York: Bootstrap Press 1988).

1. Joseph Nathan Kane, Famous First Facts (New York: H. W. Wilson, 1981), p. 611.

2. Peter F. Drucker, The Age of Social Transformation," Atlantic Monthly, November 1994, p. 53.

3. «It's People, Stupid,» The Economist, May 27, 1995, p. 67; U. S. Department of Commerce, 1987 Census of Service Industries (Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1990); American Bar Foundation, Lawyers' Statistical Report (Chicago: 1994), p. 6.

4. Lester C. Thurow, Investment in Human Capital (Belmont, Calif.: Wadsworth, 1970).

5. NPV =???R-C)/(l+r)

где? – сумма от 0 до бесконечнлсти; NPV – чистая текущая стоимость (Net Present Value); r – норма учетной ставки (discount rate); t – время (time); R – доходы (returns); С – издержки (costs).

6. При капитализме противоречие между потреблением и инвестированием разрешается путем приведения норм (процентов) временного предпочтения к равновесию с банковской ставкой процента. Если банковская ставка составляет 10%, то любой индивидуум с нормой временного предпочтения ниже 10% может повысить свою чистую текущую стоимость будущих потребительских товаров, если станет делать сбережения, не потребляя сегодня, и тем самым сможет потребить на 10% больше год спустя. Каждый такой индивидуум продолжает делать сбережения до тех пор, пока соотношение между текущим и ожидаемым будущим потреблением не поднимет его личную норму временного предпочтения до 10% – банковской ставки процента. В этот момент он максимизирует чистую текущую стоимость будущих потребительских товаров и больше не будет заинтересован в сокращении текущего потребления с целью увеличения будущего потребления.

С другой стороны, если нормы прибыли от новых инвестиций ниже процента временного предпочтения для некоторых потребителей, последние увеличат свое потребление (и с этой целью сократят сбережения и возьмут заем), чтобы опять же увеличить чистую совокупную стоимость своего потребления.

Сегодняшнее потребление для них стоит больше, чем потребление в будущем, когда им придется возвращать долги. Если банковская процентная ставка составляет 10%, то для любого индивидуума с нормой временного предпочтения ниже 10% благоразумно занимать денежные средства, чтобы поднять текущее потребление. Он будет поступать так до тех пор, пока его текущее потребление не станет настолько велико относительно будущего потребления, что его индивидуальный процент временного предпочтения упадет до 10% В этот момент он опять же максимизирует свою чистую текущую стоимость потребительских товаров за время жизни.

Если людей с нормами временного предпочтения ниже 10% много, то их общие сбережения снизят процентную ставку. Наоборот, если у многих норма временного предпочтения выше 10%, их дополнительное потребление повысит банковскую процентную ставку. То же самое справедливо для инвесторов. Благодаря инвесторам, которым требуются денежные средства на финансирование проектов, приносящих больше 10% дохода, банковская процентная ставка повысится; прекращение инвестиций, приносящих меньше 10% дохода, понизит ее. Оптимум капиталистических вложений достигается, когда процентная ставка такова, что ни у кого нет стимула изменять ни объем своего потребления, ни объем инвестиций.

7. U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Money Income of Households, Families, and Persons in the United States, 1992, Current Population Reports, Consumer Income, Series P-60 (Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1993), pp. 144, 146.

8. Ibid., p. 121.

9. George Psacharopoulos, "Returns to Education: A Further International Update and Implications, Journal of Human Resources, 1985, p. 583.

10. James M. Poterba, Government Intervention in the Markets for Education and Health Care: How and Why? NBER Working Paper No. 4916, 1995.

11. James M. Poterba and Lawrence H. Summers, «A CEO Survey of U. S. Companies' Time Horizons and Hurdle Rates,» Sloan Management Review, Fall 1995, p. 145.

12. Poterba, Government Intervention in the Markets for Education and Health Care.

13. Michael Prowse, Time to Separate School and State," Financial Times, March 13, 1995, p. 15.

14. Michael J. Piore, Beyond Individualism (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1995), p. 77.

15. Peter Passel, The Wealth of Nations: A 'Greener' Approach Turns List Upside Down," New YorkTimes, September 19, 1995, p. C12.

16. Richard D. Bartel, «Editorial Perspective,» Challenge, January-February 1995, p. 3.

17. «Size of the Internet,» The Economist, April 15, 1995, p. 102.

18. Computer Science and Telecommunications Board and National Research Council, Realizing the Information Future: The Internet and Beyond (Washington, D. C.: National Academy Press, 1994), p. 2.

19. «A Survey of the Internet: The Accidental Superhighway,» The Economist, July 1, 1995, p. 13.

20. M. Ishaq Nadiri and Theofanis P. Mamuneas, Infrastructure and Public R amp;D Investments and the Growth of Factor Productivity in U. S. Manufacturing Industries, NBER Working Paper No. 4845, August 1994; Douglas Holtz-Eakin and Amy Ellen Schwartz, Infrastructure in a Structural Model of Growth, NBER Working Paper No. 4824, August 1994; Dean Baker and Todd Schafer, The Case for Public Investment (Washington, D. C.: Economic Policy Institute, 1995), pp. 4, 6, 9.

21. Robert Ford and Pierre Poret, Infrastructure and Private Sector Productivity, OECD Economic Studies No. 17, Autumn 1991, p. 63.

22. Baker and Schafer, The Case for PubKc Investment, pp. 4, 6, 9; Council of Competitiveness, «Charting Competitiveness,» Challenges, October 1995, p. 3.

23. Natalie Angler, «Science Mimics the Movies: Frankensteinian Fruit Fly Experiments Point to Master Gene for Eye Formation,» International Herald Tribune, March 25-26, 1995, p. 1.

24. John Holusha, The Risks for High Tech When Non-Techies Take Over," New York Times, September 5, 1993, p. F7; Gautam Naik, «Corporate Research: How Much Is It Worth? Top Labs Shift Research Goals to Fast Payoffs,» Wall Street Journal, May 22, 1995, p. Bl.

25. Malcolm W. Browne, «Prized Labs Shift to More Mundane Tasks,» New York Times, June 20, 1995, p. Cl.

26. Laura D'Andrea Tyson, Who's Bashing Whom? Trade Conflict in High-Technology Industries (Washington, D. C.: Institute for International Economics, 1992), p. 32.

27. Karen Southwick, «How Far Can Serendipity Carry Adobe?» Upside, September 1995, p. 48.

28. Marguerite de Angela, Book of Nursery and Mother Goose Rhymes (New York: Dou-bleday and Co., 1953), p. 137.

29. Ann Markusen and Michael Oden, «Investing in the Peace Dividend,» in T. Schafer, ed., Foundations for a New Century (Washington, D. C.: Economic Policy Insti-tute/M. E. Sharpe, forthcoming), p. 17.

30. Malcolm W. Browne, «Budget Cuts Seen by Science Group as Very Harmful for U. S. Research,» New York Times, August 29, 1995, p. Cl.

31. PhilipJ. Hilts, «U.S. Intends to Raise Science and Technology Spending, Gore Says,» New York Times, August 4, 1994, p. 19.

32. «Survey Defense Technology,» The Economist, June 10, 1995, p. 8; Carol Lessure, Defense Budget Project, President Clinton's Defense Transition Program, May 10, 1994, p. 8.

33. «Of Strategies, Subsidies, and Spillovers,» The Economist, March 18, 1995, p. 84.

34. Edward O. Wilson, «Is Humanity Suicidal?» New York Times Magazine, May 30, 1993, p. 25-26.

35. Barry Bosworth, Prospects for Saving and Investment in Industrial Countries, Brookings Discussion Papers No. 113, May 1995, p. 2.

36. Ibid., p. 4; Martin Wolf, The Costs of Low Savings," Financial Times, May 2, 1995, p. 20.

37. Bosworth, «Prospects for Saving and Investment,» pp. 8-9.

38. Ibid., appendix, table 1.

39. Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1996, Historical Tables (Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1995), p. 122; Council of Economic Advisers, Economic Report of the President 1995 (Washington, D. C.: Ul S. Government Printing Office, 1995), p. 274; U. S. Department of Commerce, Statistical Abstract of the United States 1994 (Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office), pp. 372, 607; Statistical Abstract 1979, p. 285; U. S. Department of Commerce, National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1959-1988 (Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1992), p. 64; Richard Ruggles, «Accounting for Savings and Capital Formation in the United States, 1947-1991,» Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 1993, p. 11.

40. Robert Heilbroner and William Milberg, The Crisis of Vision in Modem Economic Thought (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1995), p. 86.

41. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Policies for Long-Run Growth, 1992, p. 186.

42. Sylvia Nasar, «Older Americans Cited in Studies of National Savings Rate Slump,» New York Times, February 21, 1995, p. 1.

43. Edward C. Banfield, The Unheavenly City Revisited (Boston: Little, Brown, 1968), p. 53.

44. U. S. Department of Commerce, Long-Term Economic Growth 1960-1970 (Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1973), pp. 222-25.

45. «French Finance Minister Resigns,» Boston Globe, August 26, 1995, p. 2.

46. Shlomo Maital and Sharone L. Maital, «Is the Future What It Used to Be? A Behavioral Theory of the Decline of Savings in the West,» Journal of Socio-Economics, Vol. 23, No. 1/2, 1994, p. 10.

47. Economic Report of the President 1986, pp. 282, 336, 338.

48. Economic Report of the President 1995, pp. 306, 362-363.

49. Council on Competitiveness, «Can Credit-Happy America Be Saved?» Challenges, February 1995, p. 1.

50. «How Washington Can Stop Its War on Savings,» Fortune, March 6, 1995, p. 133.

51. «Global 500,» Fortune, August 7, 1995, p. Fl.

52. Martin Feldstein, Too Little, Not Too Much," The Economist, June 24, 1995, p. 72.

53. Lester C. Thurow, The Zero-Sum Society, Chapter 5, «Environmental Problems» (New York: Basic Books, 1980), pp. 103-122; Lester C. Thurow, Head to Head, Chapter 7, «Festering Problems: Global Environmentalism» (New York: Morrow, 1992), p. 219.

54. Richard M. Coughlin, ed., Morality, Rationality, and Efficiency: New Perspectives in Socio-Economics (London: M. E. Sharpe, 1991), p. 5.

55. Ibid., p. 46.

56. Richard Thaler, Quasi Rational Economics (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1991), p. 77.

57. Piore, Beyond Individualism, pp. 137-138.

58. Fred Hirsh, Social Limits to Growth (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1976), pp. 143, 156.

59. Ibid., p. 137.

60. Bruno Dagens, Angkor: Heart of an Asian Empire (New York: Harry N. Abrams, 1995); Dawn F. Rooney, Angkor (Chicago: Passport Books, 1994), p. 32.