Будущее капитализма
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17 . Charles F. Doran and Ellen Reisman Babby, eds., Being and Becoming Canada, The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, March 1995.
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19 . Martin Kramer, «Arab Nationalism: Mistaken Identity,» Reconstructing Nations and States, special issue of Daedalus, Summer 1993, p. 171.
20 . Francis Fukuyama, «Blood and Belonging,» New York Times Book Review, April 10, 1994, p. 7.
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22 . Douglas B. Klusmeyer, «Aliens, Immigrants, and Citizens,» Reconstructing Nations and States, special issue of Daedalus, Summer 1993, p. 102.
23 . Eric Hobsbawm, Age of Extremes: The Short Twentieth Century, 1914-1991 (London: Michael Joseph, 1994), p. 11.
24 . Ralph C. Bryant, 'Increasing Economic Integration and Eroding Political Sovereignty," The Brookings Review, Fall 1994, p. 42.
1. Arthur R. Jensen, Straight Talk About Mental Tests (New York' Free Press 1981) P. 6.
2. Richard Sandomir, «Pro Basketball: Players Sue to Raise NBA Salary Cap,» New York Times, November 10, 1994, p. B4.
3. Council of Economic Advisers, Economic Report of the President 1995 [Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office), pp. 280, 358.
4. Martin Baily, Gary Burtless, Robert E. Litan, Growth with Equity (Washington, D. C.: Brookmgs Institution, 1993).
5. Jennifer L. Hochschild, What's Fair? American Beliefs About Distributive Justice (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1981), p. 9.
6. Francis Fukuyama, The End of History and the Last Man (New York: Avon Books, 1992), pp. 242, 291.
7. Encyclopedia Britannica, Vol. 20, 1972 edition, p. 631.
8. J. L. Baxter, Behavioral Foundations of Economics (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1993), pp. 28, 35.
9. Ibid., p. 53.; Tibor Scitovsky, The Joyless Economy (New York: Oxford University Press, 1978), p. 109.
10. Jonathan H. Turner, Herbert Spencer: A Renewed Appreciation (Beverly HUIs, Calif.: Sage Publishers, 1985), p. 11; J. D. Y. Peel, Herbert Spencer, The Evolution of a Sociologist (New York: Basic Books, 1971); Herbert Spencer, The Principles of Biology, Vol. 1 (New York: Appleton amp; Co., 1866), p. 530.
11. Richard J. Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life (New York: Free Press, 1994).
12. Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Annual Digest of Statistics, 1994 Edition (Hong Kong: Government Printer), p. 198.
13. Ng Kang-Chung, «Resale Reform to Free Flats for Needy,» South China Morning Post, Sept. 16, 1995, p. 1.
14. John A. Garraty, Unemployment in History (New York: Harper and Row 1978) p. 134.
15. Peter Applebome, «In Gingrich's College Course, Critics Find a Wealth of Ethical Concerns,» New York Times, February 20, 1995, p. C7.
16. Eric Hobsbawm, Age of Extremes: The Short Twentieth Century, 1914-1991 (London: Michael Joseph, 1994), p. 138.
17. Newt Gingrich, Contract with America (New York: Times Books 1994) 18.Ibid.
19. Nordal Akerman, ed., The Necessity of Friction (Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag 1993) p. 12.
20. Alan Cowell, «Socialists Are Sinking in Germany,» New York Times, September 24 1995, p. 4.
21. Michael Thompson-Noel, «A Daily Dose of Pick and Mix News,» Financial Times March 13, 1995, p. 10.
22. Richard Tomkins, «Enter the Bespoken Newspaper,» Financial Times, March 13 1995, p. 11.
23. Fernand Braudel, The Identity of France, Vol. II, People and Production (New York: Fontana Press, 1991), p. 102.
24. Frances Gies and Joseph Gies, Forge and Waterwheel: Technology and Innovation in the Middle Ages (New York: HarperCoIlins), 1994, pp. 1, 3.
25. Braudel, The Identity of France, p. 102.
26. Georges Duby, ed., A History of Private Life: Revelations of the Medieval World (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press/Belknap Press, 1988), p. 123.
27. Gies and Gies, Forge and Waterwheel, pp. 37, 43.
28. Fernand Braudel, The Structures of Everyday Life: The Limits of the Possible, Vol. 1 (New York: Harper and Row, 1981), p. 123.
29. William Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire: The Medieval Mind and the Renaissance (Boston: Little, Brown, 1992), p. 47.
32. Braudel, The Identity of France, p. 102.
33. Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire, p. 96.
35. Ibid.; Georges Duby, Dominique B. Arthelemy, and Charles De LaRonciere, «Portraits,» in Georges Duby, ed., A History of Private Life: Revelations of the Medieval World (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press/Belknap Press, 1988), p. 170.
36. Fernand Braudel, The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of PhilUp 11 (New York: Harper and Row, 1973), p. 745.
37. Duby, ed., A History of Private Life, p. 23.
39. Duby, Arthelemy, and De LaRonciere, «Portraits,» pp. 116, 165; Norman F. Cantor, The Civilization of the Middle Ages (New York: HarperCoIlins, 1993), p. 197.
40. Timothy Egan, «Many Seek Security in Private Communities,» New York Times, Septembers, 1995, p. 1.
42. Adam Pertman, 'Home Safe Home: Closed Communities Grow," Boston Globe, March 14, 1994, p. 1.
43. Dale Mahadridge, «Walled Off,» Mother Jones, November/December 1994, p. 27.
45. Egan, «Many Seek Security,» p. 22.
46. Edward J. Blakely and Marach Gail Snyder, Fortress America: Gated and Walled Communities in the United States, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, June 10, 1994, p. 11.
48. Cantor, The Civilization of the Middle Ages, p. 195.
49. Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire, p. 47.
50. Cantor, The Civilization of the Middle Ages, p. 119.
51. Fernand Braudel, A History of Civilization (New York: Penguin Press, 1963), p. 17.
52. Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire, p. 5.
53. Duby, ed., A History of Private Life, p. 69.
54. Cantor, The Civilization of the Middle Ages, p. 187; Gies and Gies, Forge and Waterwheel, p. 178.
55. Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire, pp. 6, 7.
58. Malcolm Barber, The Two Cities: Medieval Europe 1050-1320 (New York: Rout-ledge, 1992), p. 27.
59. Cantor, The Civilization of the Middle Ages, p. 27.
60. Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire, p. 73.
61. Susan Strange, «The Defective State,» Daedalus, Spring 1995, p. 56.
62. Manchester, A World Lit Only by Fire, p. 3.
63. Ibid., pp. 86,90, 102, 121.
64. Jerry Gray, «Budget Axes Land on Items Big and Small,» New York Times, February 24, 1995, p. A14.
65. Gunnar Myrdal, Against the Stream (New York: Pantheon, 1972).
66. Robert Heilbroner and William Milberg, The Crisis of Vision in Modem Economic Thought (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1995), p. 108.
67. Richard Holt, The Reluctant Superpower (New York: Kodansha International, 1995), p. 1.
68. R. С. Lewontin, Steven Rose and Leon J. Kamin, Not in Our Genes: Biology, Ideology, and Human Nature (New York: Pantheon Books, 1984), p. 69.
69. Gary S. Becker and William M. Landes, Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment (New York: Columbia University Press/ National Bureau of Economic Research, 1974), p. 18.
70. Lewontin, Rose, and Kamin, Not in Our Genes, p. 5.
71. Amitai Etzioni, The Spirit of Community: Rights, Responsibility, and the Communi tarian Agenda (New York: Crown Publishers, 1993), p. 30.
72. Daniel Bell and Irving Kristol, eds., The Crisis in Economic Theory (New York: Basic Books, 1981); Samuel Brittan, The Role and Limits of Government (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1983), p. 26.
73. Myrdal, Against the Stream.
74. Fred Block, Post-Industrial Possibilities: A Critique of Economic Discourse (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990), p. 39.
75. James M. Buchanan and Robert D. Tollison, Theory of PubKc Choice: Political Applications of Economics (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1972).
76. Mark A. Lutz and Kenneth Lux, Humanistic Economics (New York: Bootstrap Press 1988).
1. Joseph Nathan Kane, Famous First Facts (New York: H. W. Wilson, 1981), p. 611.
2. Peter F. Drucker, The Age of Social Transformation," Atlantic Monthly, November 1994, p. 53.
3. «It's People, Stupid,» The Economist, May 27, 1995, p. 67; U. S. Department of Commerce, 1987 Census of Service Industries (Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1990); American Bar Foundation, Lawyers' Statistical Report (Chicago: 1994), p. 6.
4. Lester C. Thurow, Investment in Human Capital (Belmont, Calif.: Wadsworth, 1970).
5. NPV =???R-C)/(l+r)
где? – сумма от 0 до бесконечнлсти; NPV – чистая текущая стоимость (Net Present Value); r – норма учетной ставки (discount rate); t – время (time); R – доходы (returns); С – издержки (costs).
6. При капитализме противоречие между потреблением и инвестированием разрешается путем приведения норм (процентов) временного предпочтения к равновесию с банковской ставкой процента. Если банковская ставка составляет 10%, то любой индивидуум с нормой временного предпочтения ниже 10% может повысить свою чистую текущую стоимость будущих потребительских товаров, если станет делать сбережения, не потребляя сегодня, и тем самым сможет потребить на 10% больше год спустя. Каждый такой индивидуум продолжает делать сбережения до тех пор, пока соотношение между текущим и ожидаемым будущим потреблением не поднимет его личную норму временного предпочтения до 10% – банковской ставки процента. В этот момент он максимизирует чистую текущую стоимость будущих потребительских товаров и больше не будет заинтересован в сокращении текущего потребления с целью увеличения будущего потребления.
С другой стороны, если нормы прибыли от новых инвестиций ниже процента временного предпочтения для некоторых потребителей, последние увеличат свое потребление (и с этой целью сократят сбережения и возьмут заем), чтобы опять же увеличить чистую совокупную стоимость своего потребления.
Сегодняшнее потребление для них стоит больше, чем потребление в будущем, когда им придется возвращать долги. Если банковская процентная ставка составляет 10%, то для любого индивидуума с нормой временного предпочтения ниже 10% благоразумно занимать денежные средства, чтобы поднять текущее потребление. Он будет поступать так до тех пор, пока его текущее потребление не станет настолько велико относительно будущего потребления, что его индивидуальный процент временного предпочтения упадет до 10% В этот момент он опять же максимизирует свою чистую текущую стоимость потребительских товаров за время жизни.
Если людей с нормами временного предпочтения ниже 10% много, то их общие сбережения снизят процентную ставку. Наоборот, если у многих норма временного предпочтения выше 10%, их дополнительное потребление повысит банковскую процентную ставку. То же самое справедливо для инвесторов. Благодаря инвесторам, которым требуются денежные средства на финансирование проектов, приносящих больше 10% дохода, банковская процентная ставка повысится; прекращение инвестиций, приносящих меньше 10% дохода, понизит ее. Оптимум капиталистических вложений достигается, когда процентная ставка такова, что ни у кого нет стимула изменять ни объем своего потребления, ни объем инвестиций.
7. U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Money Income of Households, Families, and Persons in the United States, 1992, Current Population Reports, Consumer Income, Series P-60 (Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1993), pp. 144, 146.
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36. Ibid., p. 4; Martin Wolf, The Costs of Low Savings," Financial Times, May 2, 1995, p. 20.
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38. Ibid., appendix, table 1.
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